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Analyses

Bondora Rating and portfolio performance – quite terrible?

In short: Bondora has offered subpar returns in 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017. At the same time, risks have been very high. In several segments the pretax returns are negative. Returns for 2014-2016 are already below the 6.75% promised by Go & Grow product. All of these returns are calculated by Bondora’s optimistic calculation methodology. […]

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Overviews

Stats according to Bondora

Back in December 2015 I analyzed some 2014 loans (inspired by Bondora’s own similar earlier analysis) and concluded that the Bondora Rating applied on those loans had significantly misjudged the expected loss for those loans. According to Bondora my article was full of mistakes and inaccuracies. Also, turns out there are sides in data analysis and […]

Categories
Analyses

How to decide if the DCA deal is good?

IN SHORT: The percentage of actual 7+ days overdue CASES that end up defaulting, is roughly around 23%. This is the number you actually should be looking at when figuring out the costs. With current deal structure, risk averse investors who prefer lower risk / higher quality loans, are practically guaranteed to lose money with this deal. […]

Categories
Analyses

Is Bondora giving away your money?

NB! Bondora has released some additional details in regards to the process. Last updated 26.03.2016 8 AM. Relevant sections have been marked accordingly. Since the information available is far from complete, any comments on possible misunderstandings or mistakes in the post below are more than welcome and I’ll gladly improve on the analysis accordingly. IN SHORT […]

Categories
Analyses

Bondora default curves per year and Rating

In the comments of a previous post Jan asked if I’ve done any analyses on the timing of when defaults happen on Bondora. I did one back in October of 2014, but that could be relatively outdated and there’s a lot of new data available today. After some consideration and after reading a similar analysis on […]

Categories
Analyses

Bondora default rates and other statistics

Disclaimer: I ran most of the calculations in one long session so can’t really guarantee that all data is entirely 100% accurate and free of any accidental mistakes with filtering or whatnot. Before making any investment decisions, double-check the results and run your own calculations as well. This is essentially what covers the risks of […]

Categories
Analyses

Bondora Rating has outperformed expectations?

Important! If you find some mistake in the analysis or logic here, let me know in the comments below so I can deal with it. CONSTRUCTIVE criticism and feedback is welcome and encouraged. Key takeaways The logic used by Bondora to claim that Bondora Rating has outperformed expectations, is invalid and misleading. The compared XIRR and Expected Return […]

Categories
Analyses

Performance of Bondora Rating in 2014 (simplified)

This is the simplified version of the results and conclusions I did on the Bondora Rating for loans issued in 2014. A more thorough post with explanations about what I did and what I looked at in different steps of the analyses is available here. If you understand data analysis and some statistics, you should prefer to […]

Categories
Analyses

Performance of Bondora Rating in 2014 (analysis)

This is a more thorough post with explanations about what I did and what I looked at in different steps of the analyses. If statistics and data analysis is not your strong side, there is also a simplified version of the steps and conclusions available here. I do suggest however, that you at least review […]

Categories
Guides

Exposure at default and return on investment

This blog post is part 3 of a “Beyond the default rate” series, which investigates what the default rate actually means, how it affects you and why you should know more than simply the number you see on some report. If you haven’t yet read the previous posts in the series, please do that before […]