Categories
Analyses

Bondora Portfolio Profitability Revisited

You probably have seen this Bondora portfolio profitability table, if you have visited Bondora’s statistics page. While interesting, this table uses Bondora’s creative way to account for overdue principal. In other words, for anything but the very old defaults, it barely accounts for overdues. As I’ve explained previously here and here for example. Fortunately, Bondora […]

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Guides

Bondora Stats Crash Course #2: Cash on Cash Returns

Bondora provides a ton of data and statistics for investors. However, this can easily lead to overwhelm and confusion. I will attempt to shed some light and provide helpful clarifications on some of the graphs and numbers you may have been introduced to already. Short version: One of the easiest ways to estimate Bondora portfolio […]

Categories
Guides

Bondora Stats Crash Course #1: Recovery Rate

Bondora provides a ton of data and statistics for investors. However, this can easily lead to overwhelm and confusion. I will attempt to shed some light and provide helpful clarifications on some of the graphs and numbers you may have been introduced to already. Short version: The only meaningful data about recovery rate is available […]

Categories
Analyses

Bondora Rating and portfolio performance – quite terrible?

In short: Bondora has offered subpar returns in 2014, 2015, 2016 and 2017. At the same time, risks have been very high. In several segments the pretax returns are negative. Returns for 2014-2016 are already below the 6.75% promised by Go & Grow product. All of these returns are calculated by Bondora’s optimistic calculation methodology. […]

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Overviews

Stats according to Bondora

Back in December 2015 I analyzed some 2014 loans (inspired by Bondora’s own similar earlier analysis) and concluded that the Bondora Rating applied on those loans had significantly misjudged the expected loss for those loans. According to Bondora my article was full of mistakes and inaccuracies. Also, turns out there are sides in data analysis and […]

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Analyses

How to decide if the DCA deal is good?

IN SHORT: The percentage of actual 7+ days overdue CASES that end up defaulting, is roughly around 23%. This is the number you actually should be looking at when figuring out the costs. With current deal structure, risk averse investors who prefer lower risk / higher quality loans, are practically guaranteed to lose money with this deal. […]

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Analyses

Is Bondora giving away your money?

NB! Bondora has released some additional details in regards to the process. Last updated 26.03.2016 8 AM. Relevant sections have been marked accordingly. Since the information available is far from complete, any comments on possible misunderstandings or mistakes in the post below are more than welcome and I’ll gladly improve on the analysis accordingly. IN SHORT […]

Categories
Analyses

Bondora default curves per year and Rating

In the comments of a previous post Jan asked if I’ve done any analyses on the timing of when defaults happen on Bondora. I did one back in October of 2014, but that could be relatively outdated and there’s a lot of new data available today. After some consideration and after reading a similar analysis on […]

Categories
Analyses

Bondora default rates and other statistics

Disclaimer: I ran most of the calculations in one long session so can’t really guarantee that all data is entirely 100% accurate and free of any accidental mistakes with filtering or whatnot. Before making any investment decisions, double-check the results and run your own calculations as well. This is essentially what covers the risks of […]

Categories
Analyses

Bondora Rating has outperformed expectations?

Important! If you find some mistake in the analysis or logic here, let me know in the comments below so I can deal with it. CONSTRUCTIVE criticism and feedback is welcome and encouraged. Key takeaways The logic used by Bondora to claim that Bondora Rating has outperformed expectations, is invalid and misleading. The compared XIRR and Expected Return […]