Back in December 2015 I analyzed some 2014 loans (inspired by Bondora’s own similar earlier analysis) and concluded that the Bondora Rating applied on those loans had significantly misjudged the expected loss for those loans. According to Bondora my article was full of mistakes and inaccuracies. Also, turns out there are sides in data analysis and […]
In the comments of a previous post Jan asked if I’ve done any analyses on the timing of when defaults happen on Bondora. I did one back in October of 2014, but that could be relatively outdated and there’s a lot of new data available today. After some consideration and after reading a similar analysis on […]
Disclaimer: I ran most of the calculations in one long session so can’t really guarantee that all data is entirely 100% accurate and free of any accidental mistakes with filtering or whatnot. Before making any investment decisions, double-check the results and run your own calculations as well. This is essentially what covers the risks of […]
Important! If you find some mistake in the analysis or logic here, let me know in the comments below so I can deal with it. CONSTRUCTIVE criticism and feedback is welcome and encouraged. Key takeaways The logic used by Bondora to claim that Bondora Rating has outperformed expectations, is invalid and misleading. The compared XIRR and Expected Return […]
This is the simplified version of the results and conclusions I did on the Bondora Rating for loans issued in 2014. A more thorough post with explanations about what I did and what I looked at in different steps of the analyses is available here. If you understand data analysis and some statistics, you should prefer to […]
This is a more thorough post with explanations about what I did and what I looked at in different steps of the analyses. If statistics and data analysis is not your strong side, there is also a simplified version of the steps and conclusions available here. I do suggest however, that you at least review […]
This blog post is part 3 of a “Beyond the default rate” series, which investigates what the default rate actually means, how it affects you and why you should know more than simply the number you see on some report. If you haven’t yet read the previous posts in the series, please do that before […]
Knowing when the majority of the loans default, can give you a good idea on how well your portfolio or some portion of the platform portfolio is performing. In addition, if you know what proportion of loans default in a 6-month period after issuing and that the proportions have been relatively stable over time, you […]
There have been a large amount of changes at Bondora over time and I bet no-one really remembers all of them and when they happened. Of course, knowing most of them won’t give you any actionable value (although might be cool to know anyway), but some of it is relevant when doing your analyses on […]